Economic trucking trends: Class 8 orders decline as OEMs start 2026 orders
The trucking industry is currently navigating through challenging waters, marked by a mix of economic uncertainties and shifting market dynamics. As Class 8 orders for heavy-duty trucks begin to roll in, the outlook remains murky, with numerous factors affecting fleet operators' decisions. Understanding the underlying trends is crucial for stakeholders in the industry, from manufacturers to shippers and operators. Let's delve into the latest developments in Class 8 orders and freight market conditions.
Current state of Class 8 orders
As truck manufacturers launch their order books for 2026, the initial response has been less than encouraging. In September, preliminary Class 8 orders totaled approximately 20,500 units, representing a notable increase of 60% from August. However, this figure is still a staggering 41% lower than the same period last year, reflecting a persistent trend that has now lasted for nine consecutive months.
This downturn is further emphasized when we compare it to the 10-year September average of 29,499 units, indicating a significant gap in demand. According to FTR, several factors contribute to this decline, including:
- Trade tensions affecting international commerce.
- Uncertainty surrounding tariffs on imported trucks and parts.
- Broader economic challenges that dampen freight demand.
On September 25, a new 25% Section 232 tariff on imported heavy-duty trucks was announced by President Trump, effective from October 1. Although official details are still pending, the mere announcement has already unsettled fleets, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and suppliers. The potential implications of these tariffs could lead to:
- Increased truck prices.
- Delays or cancellations of new orders.
- A surge in demand for used trucks as operators extend the lifecycle of their existing vehicles.
Dan Moyer, a senior analyst at FTR, notes that the existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, which are currently at 50%, further complicate the situation. These tariffs increase component costs and add to the uncertainty in sourcing materials, making it difficult for manufacturers to maintain stable pricing.
Freight volumes show a downward trend
August saw a decline in freight volumes, as reported by ACT Research in its For-Hire Trucking Index. This downturn is reflective of broader consumer trends, which, while seemingly strong, have not translated into equivalent spending due to the lagging impact of tariffs on prices.
The freight downturn, now in its fourth year, remains exacerbated by the following factors:
- High inflation affecting real income growth.
- Private fleet expansion reversing, contributing to weaker demand.
- Publicly traded for-hire carriers reporting their worst profit margins since 2010.
According to Carter Vieth, a research analyst at ACT Research, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs continues to hinder recovery. “Tariffs have added cost and uncertainty, which delays the potential recovery for the for-hire market,” he stated.
Spot market rates decline
The spot market has also experienced a downturn, as reported by DAT Freight & Analytics, with demand cooling significantly in August. Notably, volumes for van, refrigerated, and flatbed transport dropped by 8%, 6%, and 6% respectively compared to July. This decrease has led to a drop in spot rates:
- Spot van rates fell to $2.03 per mile.
- Reefer rates decreased to $2.41 per mile.
- Flatbed rates dropped to $2.49 per mile.
This trend indicates that shippers are facing challenges in maintaining pricing levels, especially as they prepare for 2026 contracts. Ken Adamo, chief of analytics at DAT, emphasizes the impact of early imports on traditional seasonal demand, noting that many retail goods typically transported during this period are already in inventory.
Potential for stability in spot rates
Despite the recent declines, there may be a glimmer of hope for stability in spot market rates. Data from Truckstop.com indicates that as of late September, spot market rates remained flat, suggesting a potential for stabilization as we transition into October. Historically, this time of year is known for a leveling off of rates.
In a recent update, Truckstop.com mentioned that dry van spot rates experienced a slight increase after four weeks of decline, while refrigerated rates continued to decrease, albeit at a slower pace. The Market Demand Index, which measures load postings against truck postings, dipped slightly but remains relatively high compared to earlier in the year.
Challenges and conditions for shippers
Shippers continue to face a challenging environment, as highlighted by FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index, which, while showing signs of improvement from -3.6 to -2.0 in July, still indicates unfavorable conditions. This shift is largely attributed to more favorable freight dynamics, with rates reaching their most advantageous levels since last October.
FTR anticipates that shippers will navigate mildly unfavorable market conditions for the next couple of years, but with a tightening trucking capacity on the horizon. Avery Vise, vice-president of trucking at FTR, points to emerging challenges such as:
- Tighter supply of drivers due to a preliminary revision of payroll jobs data.
- Crackdown on foreign nationals holding commercial driver’s licenses.
- Record-high insurance premiums adding financial strain.
- Implications of the new 25% tariff on heavy trucks, potentially limiting growth opportunities for trucking companies.
As the trucking industry continues to adapt to these evolving conditions, stakeholders must remain vigilant and proactive in navigating the complexities of the market.
For further insights into these trends, you can watch the video "Class 8 Orders: Crash 52% — Lowest Level" here:
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